Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 15.283525 17.361034 19.732460 22.665142 26.230069 30.469856 35.965479
2025-06-08 12.247402 14.735809 17.818874 21.999759 27.652208 35.233348 46.549812
2025-06-15 10.709430 13.385290 16.889295 21.959524 29.373506 40.292498 58.623321
2025-06-22 9.295964 11.921273 15.491957 20.900531 29.274756 42.516759 66.944433
2025-06-29 8.181786 10.698963 14.223478 19.756636 28.726092 43.770108 73.883065
2025-07-06 7.392212 9.832834 13.338929 19.023029 28.633723 45.675635 82.640482
2025-07-13 7.475572 10.213542 14.310020 21.306372 33.995701 58.767917 121.001579
2025-07-20 7.192706 10.012865 14.355434 22.057033 36.775871 67.740772 155.634624
2025-07-27 6.675726 9.404116 13.683229 21.460136 36.847152 70.913742 176.491569
2025-08-03 6.465299 9.253028 13.734408 22.155002 39.638710 81.287528 228.724172
2025-08-10 6.101257 8.825597 13.278934 21.840862 40.229644 86.416272 267.459121
2025-08-17 5.784477 8.450833 12.878161 21.576822 40.877272 91.953921 314.518278
2025-08-24 5.502285 8.127575 12.563519 21.495208 42.067012 99.969936 387.994767
2025-08-31 5.165943 7.692014 12.015057 20.878108 41.871367 103.830663 447.195570
2025-09-07 4.943628 7.433711 11.762794 20.840614 43.119112 113.057032 563.215676
2025-09-14 4.614926 6.972081 11.101106 19.854270 41.712299 112.482736 605.555324
2025-09-21 4.302279 6.522062 10.431991 18.787391 39.922341 109.956823 628.874254
2025-09-28 4.062156 6.186675 9.956942 18.102353 39.073264 110.842047 691.979797
2025-10-05 4.178357 6.483807 10.701482 20.232421 46.663798 150.870588 1463.446968
2025-10-12 4.117121 6.457960 10.816641 20.931371 50.279047 177.012265 2426.392999
2025-10-19 3.928484 6.189088 10.428792 20.375644 49.787145 181.885959 2952.608200
2025-10-26 3.872908 6.162010 10.525725 21.022545 53.451437 213.470722 5538.615390
2025-11-02 3.730457 5.965331 10.261434 20.730156 53.826988 225.731767 7942.771961